"When a bird flu pandemic develops, within a year a third of the world's population would contract the virus. Up to 90 million Americans would fall ill, with nine million Americans requiring hospitalization in critical care units for respiratory distress. Between 200,000 and two million Americans would be expected to die. Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations
What is a Pandemic
Pandemic flu is a particular kind of flu that causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness that spreads easily from person to person. While most people have some immunity to various strains of seasonal flu, flu viruses are constantly changing and producing new strains. When a virus emerges that is so different from previous strains that few, if any, people have any immunity to it, the impact is more severe and widespread than with seasonal flu. There is no flu pandemic at this time.
While medical authorities are concerned that one could develop from the avian flu which has infected bird populations in most parts of the world, there is no avian flu in the United States. Although the avian flu virus is very dangerous to humans, it is very difficult for humans to become infected. But if the virus changes in certain ways, human to human infection could happen more easily, resulting in a worldwide health problem.
Why Localized Incident Decontamination?
Because it's not if, but when!
- The Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918-19 killed 50,000,000 people. In today's terms that would equal 150 million people.
- A bird flu pandemic could cost the U.S. economy as much as $675,000,000,000 (billion) in just a few weeks, according to a report generated by the Congressional Budget Office. This same report says millions of people could stay home, avoiding work or travel, fearing to venture out in public, which would cause economic losses for restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues of up to one quarter.,
Reported by Bloomberg Business News - December 8, 2005 - The cost to shut down public facilities, plants, or businesses can be enormous. The 23-day closure of Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington, DC, after the 9/11 attacks have been estimated at $330 million per day to the airport and Northern Virginia businesses. Costs to clean up the Hart Senate office building after discovery of an anthrax-laced letter were originally estimated at $5 million, but ballooned to $28 million. The Hart cleanup took three months. Moreover, lost revenue estimates for an anthrax attack at a busy airport approach $30 billion.
Business Week - When questioned - "What if the pandemic were to hit today?" Dr. Osterholm replied "I don't know what we could do
about it except say, "We're screwed."
Dr Michael Osterholm-Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy - The study was based on a population of 281,000,000 people. It concluded that in an unchecked epidemic, 54% of the
population (nearly 152,000,000 people) would be infected within two months.
flufactor.blogspot.com - In the wake of a cluster of avian flu cases that killed seven members of a rural Indonesian family, it appears likely
that there have been many more human-to-human infections than the authorities have previously acknowledged.
The numbers are still relatively small, and they do not mean that the virus has mutated to pass easily between people
- a change that could touch off a worldwide epidemic. All the clusters of cases have been among relatives or in
nurses who were in long, close contact with patients.
San Francisco Chronicle, June 5, 2006. - The Asian Development Bank reports a bird flu pandemic could possibly force the world into a recession.
- "We are likely to be hit by a pandemic. Most scientists believe it's a question of when, not if. This isn't about panic.
This is about preparedness. Let's take this opportunity while we have a clear and present danger in front of us."
Dr. Shelley Hearne, Executive Director of TFAH - When a bird flu pandemic develops, within a year a third of the world's population would contract the virus.
Up to 90 million Americans would fall ill, with nine million Americans requiring hospitalization in critical care units
for respiratory distress. Between 200,000 and two million Americans would be expected to die.
Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations - As many as 142,000,000 people around the world could die if bird flu turns into "a worst case" influenza pandemic.and global economic losses could run to $4,400,000,000,000 (trillion).
